地震研究

将云南地区按照0.1°×0.1°划分网格,收集了1713—2022年6级以上和1900—2022年5级以上(或震中烈度≥Ⅵ度)地震的烈度资料,分析这些地震对各网格的影响,筛选影响烈度I≥Ⅴ度的地震组成地震烈度资料数据库; 建立地震烈度与其发生频率(或重复周期)之间的关系,对云南地区的地震危险性进行评估,给出了每个网格发生某一烈度的重复周期,同时预估了未来50年发生某一烈度的超越概率,并利用烈度与加速度的对应关系,给出了50年超越概率10%的地震动峰值加速度(PGA); 将计算结果与云南地区地震构造以及中国地震动参数区划图进行比较。结果表明:重复周期较短(重复频率较高)的区域与活动断裂展布的密集程度是基本吻合的; 50年超越概率10%的峰值加速度分布区域与中国地震动参数区划图的PGA高低区域分布大体一致,从各市(县)的尺度上看,又有所不同,有的县(市)的PGA比区划图云南部分给出的结果高,有的则偏低。

Firstly,we collected the earthquake-intensity data of the M6.0 earthquakes in 1713-2022,and the M5.0(intensity≥Ⅵ)earthquakes in 1900-2022. Secondly,we divided Yunnan area into 0.1°×0.1°grids to analyze the impact of these historical earthquakes on the grids. We established the relation between the intensity and its occurrence frequency(or return period). Then we assessed the probabilistic seismic hazard in Yunnan,and obtained the return period of a certain intensity in each grid,and assessed the exceedance probability of a certain intensity in 50 years. Thirdly,based on the relations between the intensity and the acceleration,we obtained the exceedance probability of the peak ground acceleration(PGA)in 50 years in Yunnan. On this basis we analyzed the relations between the return period and the seismogeological structures in Yunnan. And we compared our PGA results with the ones provided by the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China. We found that in the zones with the short return period(or high repetition frequency),the active faults were densely distributed. The distribution of the exceedance probability of the PGA in 50 years which obtained in this paper is generally in line with the distribution of the exceedance probability of the PGA in 50 years given by the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China. Specifically,in some cities or counties,the PGAs obtained in this paper are larger than the ones given by the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China; in other cities or counties,the PGAs obtained in this paper are smaller than the ones given by the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China.

引言
1 烈度资料的收集
2 灾害曲线公式的建立
3 地震危险性评估结果
4 结论

图1 云南地区烈度I≥Ⅴ度的资料次数分布<br/>Fig.1 The distribution of the number of intensity data(I≥Ⅴ)in Yunnan

图1 云南地区烈度I≥Ⅴ度的资料次数分布
Fig.1 The distribution of the number of intensity data(I≥Ⅴ)in Yunnan

图2 滇西南地区、滇中地区、滇东南地区格网划分<br/>Fig.2 The divided cells with 0.1°×0.1° in Southwest,Central,and Southeast Yunnan

图2 滇西南地区、滇中地区、滇东南地区格网划分
Fig.2 The divided cells with 0.1°×0.1° in Southwest,Central,and Southeast Yunnan

图3 滇西南地区(a)、滇中地区(b)和滇东南地区(c)烈度-频率拟合关系<br/>Fig.3 The intensity-frequency relationship in Southwest(a),Central(b),and Southeast(c)Yunnan

图3 滇西南地区(a)、滇中地区(b)和滇东南地区(c)烈度-频率拟合关系
Fig.3 The intensity-frequency relationship in Southwest(a),Central(b),and Southeast(c)Yunnan

图4 滇西南地区(a)和滇中地区(b)去掉最大烈度和最小烈度后的烈度-频率拟合关系<br/>Fig.4 The modified intensity-frequency relationship in Southwest(a)and Central(b)Yunnan

图4 滇西南地区(a)和滇中地区(b)去掉最大烈度和最小烈度后的烈度-频率拟合关系
Fig.4 The modified intensity-frequency relationship in Southwest(a)and Central(b)Yunnan

表1 滇西南和滇中地区β值拟合得到的R和σ占比<br/>Tab.1 The percentage of regression coefficient and standard deviation in Southwest and Central Yunnan

表1 滇西南和滇中地区β值拟合得到的R和σ占比
Tab.1 The percentage of regression coefficient and standard deviation in Southwest and Central Yunnan

图5 云南地区烈度I≥Ⅵ(a),I≥Ⅶ(b),I≥Ⅷ(c),I≥Ⅸ(d)的重复周期分布<br/>Fig.5 The return periods of I≥Ⅵ(a),I≥Ⅶ(b),I≥Ⅷ(c),I≥Ⅸ(d)in Yunnan

图5 云南地区烈度I≥Ⅵ(a),I≥Ⅶ(b),I≥Ⅷ(c),I≥Ⅸ(d)的重复周期分布
Fig.5 The return periods of I≥Ⅵ(a),I≥Ⅶ(b),I≥Ⅷ(c),I≥Ⅸ(d)in Yunnan

表2 云南部分活动断裂复发周期<br/>Tab.2 The occurence interval of some active faults in Yunnan

表2 云南部分活动断裂复发周期
Tab.2 The occurence interval of some active faults in Yunnan

图6 云南地区烈度I≥Ⅵ度(a),I≥Ⅶ度(b),I≥Ⅷ度(c),I≥Ⅸ度(d)的50年超越概率<br/>Fig.6 The distribution of exceedance probability for I≥Ⅵ(a),I≥Ⅶ(b),I≥Ⅷ(c),I≥Ⅸ(d)in 50 years in Yunnan

图6 云南地区烈度I≥Ⅵ度(a),I≥Ⅶ度(b),I≥Ⅷ度(c),I≥Ⅸ度(d)的50年超越概率
Fig.6 The distribution of exceedance probability for I≥Ⅵ(a),I≥Ⅶ(b),I≥Ⅷ(c),I≥Ⅸ(d)in 50 years in Yunnan

表3 地震烈度I与PGA的对应关系<br/>Tab.3 Relationship between intensity and peak ground acceleration

表3 地震烈度I与PGA的对应关系
Tab.3 Relationship between intensity and peak ground acceleration

图7 云南50年超越概率10%的PGA分布<br/>Fig.7 PGA with a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years in Yunnan

图7 云南50年超越概率10%的PGA分布
Fig.7 PGA with a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years in Yunnan

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备注

引言

1 烈度资料的收集

2 灾害曲线公式的建立

3 地震危险性评估结果

4 结论

期刊信息