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Title:: Retrospective Forecast Test Study on Seismic Risk Prediction of Medium-strong Earthquakes in Qinghai Region by PI Algorithm

Author(s):: YUAN Fuquan; SUN Shirui; WANG Xiaoling; Earthquake Administration of Qinghai Province,Xining 810001,Qinghai,China

Keywords:: Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake in 2016; PI algorithm; earthquake forecast

摘要:: 利用PI算法对青海地区M≥5.0“目标震级”的地震进行显著危险区分析。采用10年尺度的地震“变化学习”时间段和3年尺度“预测”时间段分别统计1970～2015年中国地震台网中心和青海省地震台网目录,计算显著地震事件的发生概率,检测高概率发震区域(地震热点)。回溯性检验结果表明,2016年门源M_S6.4地震震中附近存在PI图像“热点”; 未来3年(2016～2018年),门源—祁连、德令哈、兴海、玉树和唐古拉地区的热点值lg(△P/△P_max)偏高; PI算法适用于青海地区中强地震的中长期预测。

Abstract:: The Pattern Informatics(PI)algorithm was applied to analyze M≥5.0 earthquakes in the Qinghai region. Using the catalogues of M≥5.0 earthquakes in Qinghai region provided by NEIC and Qinghai seismic network from 1970 to 2015,we made statistic by using “variation leaning” period in 10 years scale and the “prediction” period in 3 years scale respectively. The retrospective forecast test results show that there exit the “hotspot” around the epicenter of Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake in 2016 in PI diagram. In the next three years(2016～2018),the “hot spot” values lg(△P/△P_max)are higher in the Menyuan-Qilian,Delingha,Xinghai,Yushu and Tanggula areas. It is shown that the PI method could be applied in the middle and long term prediction of the moderately strong earthquake in Qinghai area.