|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]文 雯,隋明坤,庄儒新,等.基于历史地震烈度资料的云南地区地震危险性评估[J].地震研究,2023,46(03):422-429.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0047]
　WEN Wen,SUI Mingkun,ZHUANG Ruxin,et al.Seismic Hazard Assessment of Yunnan Based on Historical Seismic Intensity[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2023,46(03):422-429.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0047]
点击复制

基于历史地震烈度资料的云南地区地震危险性评估(PDF/HTML)

《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:
46
期数:
2023年03期
页码:
422-429
栏目:
出版日期:
2023-09-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Seismic Hazard Assessment of Yunnan Based on Historical Seismic Intensity
作者:
文 雯; 隋明坤; 庄儒新; 王 珏; 陆斌斌; 李 圣
(云南省地震局,云南 昆明 650224)
Author(s):
WEN Wen; SUI Mingkun; ZHUANG Ruxin; WANG Jue; LU Binbin; LI Sheng
(Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)
关键词:
地震烈度;  地震危险性评估;  地震灾害风险;  重复周期;  超越概率;  云南地区
Keywords:
seismic intensity;  probabilistic seismic hazard assessment;  seismic hazard risk;  return period;  exceedance probability;  Yunnan
分类号:
P315.91
DOI:
10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0047
摘要:
将云南地区按照0.1°×0.1°划分网格,收集了1713—2022年6级以上和1900—2022年5级以上(或震中烈度≥Ⅵ度)地震的烈度资料,分析这些地震对各网格的影响,筛选影响烈度I≥Ⅴ度的地震组成地震烈度资料数据库; 建立地震烈度与其发生频率(或重复周期)之间的关系,对云南地区的地震危险性进行评估,给出了每个网格发生某一烈度的重复周期,同时预估了未来50年发生某一烈度的超越概率,并利用烈度与加速度的对应关系,给出了50年超越概率10%的地震动峰值加速度(PGA); 将计算结果与云南地区地震构造以及中国地震动参数区划图进行比较。结果表明:重复周期较短(重复频率较高)的区域与活动断裂展布的密集程度是基本吻合的; 50年超越概率10%的峰值加速度分布区域与中国地震动参数区划图的PGA高低区域分布大体一致,从各市(县)的尺度上看,又有所不同,有的县(市)的PGA比区划图云南部分给出的结果高,有的则偏低。
Abstract:
Firstly,we collected the earthquake-intensity data of the M6.0 earthquakes in 1713-2022,and the M5.0(intensity≥Ⅵ)earthquakes in 1900-2022. Secondly,we divided Yunnan area into 0.1°×0.1°grids to analyze the impact of these historical earthquakes on the grids. We established the relation between the intensity and its occurrence frequency(or return period). Then we assessed the probabilistic seismic hazard in Yunnan,and obtained the return period of a certain intensity in each grid,and assessed the exceedance probability of a certain intensity in 50 years. Thirdly,based on the relations between the intensity and the acceleration,we obtained the exceedance probability of the peak ground acceleration(PGA)in 50 years in Yunnan. On this basis we analyzed the relations between the return period and the seismogeological structures in Yunnan. And we compared our PGA results with the ones provided by the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China. We found that in the zones with the short return period(or high repetition frequency),the active faults were densely distributed. The distribution of the exceedance probability of the PGA in 50 years which obtained in this paper is generally in line with the distribution of the exceedance probability of the PGA in 50 years given by the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China. Specifically,in some cities or counties,the PGAs obtained in this paper are larger than the ones given by the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China; in other cities or counties,the PGAs obtained in this paper are smaller than the ones given by the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China.

参考文献/References:


安晓文,常祖峰,毛先进,等.2018.云南第四纪活动断裂暨云南第四纪活动断裂分布图[J].北京:地震出版社:488.
陈敬,沈斯伟.2000.云贵地区地震等震线图集[J].地震研究,23(S):1-112.
程佳,刘杰,甘卫军,等.2011.川滇菱形块体东边界各断层段强震演化特征研究[J].中国科学:地球科学,41(9):1317.
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪-公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社.
皇甫岗,陈顒,秦嘉政,等.2010.云南地震活动性[M].昆明:云南科技出版社.
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学峰.1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二——分区地震资料基本完整的起始年分图象[J].地震学报,16(4):423-432.
李西.2015.川滇地块云南地区不同发育阶段边界断裂破裂特征研究[D].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.
刘静伟,王振明,谢富仁,等.2010.京津唐地区地震灾害和危险性评估[J].地球物理学报,53(2):318-325.
刘静伟,王振明,谢富仁,等.2014.大华北地区地震灾害与风险性评估[J].地震工程学报,36(1):134-143.
邵志刚,冯蔚,王芃,等.2020.中国大陆活动地块边界带的地震活动特征研究综述[J].地震地质,42(2):271-282.
中国地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年-1990年MS≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社.
周炳荣,郭若瑾.1989.云贵地区地震危险性研究文集[M].昆明:云南科技出版社.
Bozkurt S B,Stein R S,Toda S.2007.Forecasting probabilistic seimic shaking for grearer Tokyo from 400 years of intensity observations[J].Earthquake Spectra,23(3):525-546.
Chen K P,Tsai Y B,Cheng C T.2010.Estimated seismic intensity distribution for earthquakes in Taiwan form 1900 to 2008.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America[J].100(6):2905-2913.
Cornell C A.1968.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bulletin of the Seimological Society of America,58(5):1583-1606.
Geller R J.2011.Shake-up time for Japanese seismology[J].Nature,472(7344):407-409.
Gupta R S.1989.Hydrology and Hydraulic Systems[M].Englewood Cliffs N J Prentice Hall,739.
Hanks T C.2011.Verifying a computational method for predicting extreme ground motion[J].Seismological Research Letters,82(5):638-644.
Kossobokov V G,Nektasova A K.2012.Global seismic hazard assessment program maps are erroneous[J].Seismic Instruments,48(2):162-170.
Milne W G,Davenport A G.1969.Distribution of earthquake risk in Canada[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,59:729-754.
Sachs P.1978.Wind forces in engineering(2ndEd)[M].Elmsford N Y Pergamon Press Inc,400.
Stein R S,Toda S,Parsons T.2006.A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for greater Tokyo[J].Philo Trans R soc A,364(1845):1965-1988.
Stein S,Geller R J,Liu M.2012.Why earthquake hazard maps often fail and what to do about it[J].Tectonophysics,562-563:1-25.
Wang Z.2012.Comment on “PSHA Validated by Quasi Observational Means”by R M W Musson[J].Seismological Research letters,83(4):714-716.
GB 18306—2015,中国地震动参数区划图[S].

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2022-11-07.
基金项目:云南省地震局地震自立科技专项基金(2022ZLZX03); 云南省第一次全国自然灾害风险普查项目.
第一作者简介:文 雯(1982-),工程师,主要从事工程地震方面的研究.E-mail:54549099@qq.com.
更新日期/Last Update: 2023-06-25