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[1]ZHANG Shengfeng,ZHANG Yongxian,LI Sha.Phase 2.0 of CSEP Work:Progress,Design and Model Forecasting Experiment in the China Test Region[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2025,(02):188-197.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0020 ]

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Phase 2.0 of CSEP Work:Progress,Design and Model Forecasting Experiment in the China Test Region

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: Number of periods: 2025 02 Page number: 188-197 Column: Public date: 2025-02-10

Title:: Phase 2.0 of CSEP Work:Progress,Design and Model Forecasting Experiment in the China Test Region

Author(s):: ZHANG Shengfeng¹; 2; ZHANG Yongxian¹; LI Sha³; (1.Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China)(2.GNS Science,Avalon 5011,Lower Hutt 5040,New Zealand)(3.Earthquake Agency of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Nanning 530022,Guangxi,China)

Keywords:: CSEP 2.0 testing centers; China testing area; PI algorithm; CSEP performance testing techniques

CLC:: P315.72

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0020

Abstract:: Since the establishment of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models(RELM)working group,jointly initiated by the Southern California Earthquake Center(SCEC)and the U.S.Geological Survey(USGS)in 2000,and the subsequent development of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)project,various earthquake forecast models and statistical evaluation methods for assessing their performance have been widely applied.Based on the introduction of Phase 1.0 of CSEP work,this paper primarily introduces the aspects of CSEP 2.0,including its background,overall development design,several key conference discussions,and work plans for different test centers.Additionally,regarding the current participation of China,this paper preliminarily designs the scope of the China CSEP 2.0 test region and conducts a pilot experiment using the Pattern Informatics(PI)algorithm.It is hoped that this work can provide a reference for other models to participate in China CSEP 2.0 work and for the next step of our international co-operation research to be carried out in an orderly manner.

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Last Update: 2025-03-10