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[1]LI Dongmei,ZHENG Jianchang,YUAN Zhengyi.Probabilistic Prediction of the Earthquake Risk in North China and Test of Forecast Efficiency[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2025,(02):281-288.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0030 ]

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Probabilistic Prediction of the Earthquake Risk in North China and Test of Forecast Efficiency

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: Number of periods: 2025 02 Page number: 281-288 Column: Public date: 2025-02-10

Title:: Probabilistic Prediction of the Earthquake Risk in North China and Test of Forecast Efficiency

Author(s):: LI Dongmei¹; ZHENG Jianchang¹; YUAN Zhengyi²; (1.Shandong Earthquake Agency,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China)(2.China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)

Keywords:: mixed probability model; earthquake prediction; the Molchan test; efficiency evaluation; North China

CLC:: P315.7

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0030

Abstract:: Earthquake risk probability analysis is an effective means to quantify the seismic hazard.On the basis of the earthquake catalog produced by China Earthquake Networks Center,we use the time-dependent mixed probabilistic prediction model of seismic recurrence interval to predict the probability of small- and medium-scale earthquakes in short and medium term in North China.Then we calculate the probability of 3-magnitude and 4-magnitude earthquakes in the following 3 months,6 months,and 12 months in North China and further draw the cloud map of the probability.We find that the 3-magnitude and 4-magnitude earthquakes occur in the earthquake risk zones with relatively high probability we predicted.This proves that the prediction model is effective for earthquake prediction in our daily consultation and can help analyze and judge the earthquake trend in North China.Based on the predicted earthquake risk probability in North China in 2021 and 2022,we use the Molchan chart to test this prediction model,and find that it is effective for estimating the probability of earthquake occurrence and for monitoring and tracking the earthquake trend.

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Last Update: 2025-03-10