[1]MA Ruying,MA Zhen,WANG Peiling,et al.H-value Determination and Strong Aftershock Prediction of Earthquake Sequences in Qinghai Province and its Adjacent Area[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2016,39(增刊):69-75.
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H-value Determination and Strong Aftershock Prediction of Earthquake Sequences in Qinghai Province and its Adjacent Area
Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume:
39
Number of periods:
2016 Supplementary
Page number:
69-75
Column:
Public date:
2016-11-20
- Title:
- H-value Determination and Strong Aftershock Prediction of Earthquake Sequences in Qinghai Province and its Adjacent Area
- Keywords:
- h-value; determination of sequence type; strong aftershock prediction; Qinghai Province and its adjacent area
- CLC:
- P315.7
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- The h-values of 28 groups of M≥5.0 earthquake sequences which have relatively complete set of records in Qinghai Province and its adjacent area were calculated,and the trend of h-value varied with time were obtained. The results show that the h-value of all the earthquake sequences changed greatly within 0～3 days after the main-shock,and began to stabilize on the 8th day after the main-shock except for the individual earthquake sequences. Based on whether the h-value is greater than 1,we could determine whether the earthquake sequence is a fore-shock sequence. However,due to the overlap of the distribution range of h-value among different types of earthquake,we cannot determine the sequence type according to h-value. The success rate of the prediction of the maximum aftershock magnitude is 70% by h-value method(the error of magnitude is ±0.5). When the magnitude of the aftershock is lower,the prediction result is relatively accurate,and the prediction result of the isolated type sequence is better than that of the main-aftershock type sequence. According to the actual earthquakes,we concluded that the development trend and maximum aftershock of the Menyuan MS6.4 earthquake sequence are in accordance with the h-value prediction results.
- References:
- -
- Similar References:
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Last Update:
2016-10-20