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[1]BI Jinmeng,SONG Cheng,MA Yong.Comparative Analysis of the Activity Characteristics and the Aftershock Forecasting Efficiency of Two Earthquake Sequences in Lushan[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2023,46(02):204-215.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0021]

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Comparative Analysis of the Activity Characteristics and the Aftershock Forecasting Efficiency of Two Earthquake Sequences in Lushan

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: 46 Number of periods: 2023 02 Page number: 204-215 Column: Public date: 2023-06-01

Title:: Comparative Analysis of the Activity Characteristics and the Aftershock Forecasting Efficiency of Two Earthquake Sequences in Lushan

Author(s):: BI Jinmeng¹; 2; SONG Cheng¹; MA Yong¹; (1.Tianjin Earthquake Agency,Tianjin 300201,China)(2.Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

Keywords:: the Lushan earthquake; the Omi-R-J model; detection rate; sequence parameters; effectiveness evaluation of aftershork forecasting

CLC:: P315.725

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0021

Abstract:: We used the Omi-R-J model,which can fully make use of the information of small earthquakes,to compare and analyze the characteristics of the activity of two strong-earthquake sequences in Lushan,Sichuan Province.we found that the completeness of the Lushan M_S7.0 earthquake sequence in 2013 changed more obviously with time than that of the Lushan M_S6.1 earthquake sequence in 2022.In the early period after the two mainshocks,a few aftershocks were detected by the Omi-R-J model,and the completeness magnitude detected in the stable period of the two earthquake sequences was both about 1.8.The difference between the p-values of the two Lushan earthquake sequences was small,showing a relatively normal attenuation process of the two sequences.k-value of the M_S7.0 earthquake sequence was significantly larger than that of the M_S6.1 sequence; this may be the result of the relatively more aftershocks or the strong aftershocks of the M_S7.0 sequence.b-value of the M_S7.0 earthquake sequence was smaller than that of the M_S6.1 sequence; this indicated that Lushan area was still in a high-stress state after the 2013 M_S7.0 earthquake,but after the 2022 M_S6.1 earthquake the stress reached a relatively low level.The efficiency evaluation of the N-test method showed that in the initial stage of the two earthquake sequences the aftershock forecasting was efficient.Based on the next day’s data,the forecasting of the aftershocks on the second day after the mainshock only failed once,while the forecasting of the aftershocks of the successive 3 days after the second day of the mainshock did not fail.

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Last Update: 2023-03-10