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[1]CHEN Wei,TANG Yiming,ZHAO Jun,et al.Urban-scale Earthquake Evacuation Simulation Based on Mobile Phone Signaling Data[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2023,46(04):611-621.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0053 ]

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Urban-scale Earthquake Evacuation Simulation Based on Mobile Phone Signaling Data

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: 46 Number of periods: 2023 04 Page number: 611-621 Column: Public date: 2023-07-15

Title:: Urban-scale Earthquake Evacuation Simulation Based on Mobile Phone Signaling Data

Author(s):: CHEN Wei¹; TANG Yiming²; ZHAO Jun³; GAO Jingyi⁴; ZHAI Guofang⁵; (1.School of Management,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China)(2.School of Geographic and Biologic Information,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China)(3.Jiangsu Provincial Architectural Design and Research Institute,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China)(4.Department of Architecture and Building Science,Graduate School of Engineering,Tohoku University,Sendai 980-8579,Japan)(5.School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,Jiangsu,China)

Keywords:: emergency shelter; mobile phone signaling data; earthquake disaster; evacuation simulation; Tanjin

CLC:: P315.94

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0053

Abstract:: The simulation of urban-scale evacuation can help to find the gap between the actually-required number of the emergency shelters and the number of the existing emergency shelters,and to provide a quantitative basis for the construction of emergency shelters.Based on the mobile phone signaling data,an evacuation model is built to simulate the earthquake evacuation in Xiaobailou area,the CBD of Tianjin.It is found that the total number of people in need of refuge in the area was about 793000,and among the 298 plots,199 plots are required for evacuation during the daytime.The average evacuation time for the people on all routes is about 10.8 minutes,and the routes for people costing less than 10 minutes account for about 80.3%.The average number of refugees accommodated by 116 emergency shelters in evacuation simulation is 6396.There are 25 shelters whose maximum capacity is more than 10000 people and 6 shelters whose maximum capacity is more than 20000 people.Shelters with large excess capacity are mainly distributed around Tianjin railway station,along the East Bank of Haihe River,along Nanjing Road,in Jinwan Square,along Jinzhou Road and Shanxi Road,among which 64 have exceeded their maximum capacity,with 426800 people exceeding the total capacity and 6 668 people exceeding the average capacity.There are 52 shelters which refugees do not exceed their capacity,altogether they can accommodate 380800 people,but the actual refugees are 137300; there is a gap of 243500 people.

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Last Update: 2023-10-01