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[1]WANG Lingli,HONG Min,NIU Tian,et al.Identification Method of GNSS Strain Rate Field Anomaly and Evaluation of Earthquake Prediction Efficiency in Yunnan[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2025,(01):49-60.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0006 ]

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Identification Method of GNSS Strain Rate Field Anomaly and Evaluation of Earthquake Prediction Efficiency in Yunnan

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: Number of periods: 2025 01 Page number: 49-60 Column: Public date: 2024-12-20

Title:: Identification Method of GNSS Strain Rate Field Anomaly and Evaluation of Earthquake Prediction Efficiency in Yunnan

Author(s):: WANG Lingli¹; 3; HONG Min¹; NIU Tian¹; LI Qin²; 3; YANG Xinjun¹; Yu Shixian¹; (1.Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650201,Yunnan,China；2.Yunnan Institute of Geo-environment Monitoring,Kunming 650216,Yunnan,China；3.Yunnan Key Laboratory of Geohazard Forecast and Geo-ecological Restorationin Plateau Mountainous Area,Kunming 650216,Yunnan,China)

Keywords:: GNSS; strain rate field; earthquake prediction; R-value scoring; abnormal indicators; Yunnan area

CLC:: P315.725

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0006

Abstract:: In this paper,the velocity field is calculated by using the observation data from nearly 300 GNSS stations in Yunnan and its adjacent areas in the period from 1999 to 2020.Based on the velocity field,three stages(1999-2007,2009-2014,and 2015-2020)of the regional strain rate fields are estimated by Kriging interpolation method.By backtracking the earthquake events(M_S≥5.0)in the following 3 years of each observation stage,the correlation between the characteristics of the regional crustal deformation and the location of the earthquake events is analyzed,and some abnormal criteria of strain rate field identifying the risk locations of the strong earthquakes are summarized.That is,most of the earthquake cases occur in the tension-pressure transition zone of the high gradient zone of surface strain,and the high value zone or the edge of the maximum shear strain along the fault.Based on the abnormal characteristics of strain rate field,this paper proposes a grid algorithm of the seismic risk factor,and establishes a model of the seismic-risk area identification.By estimating the recognition factors of the risk zones of the maximum shear strain and the surface strain with the grid algorithm,the seismic risk indicators of the abnormal areas are quantitatively extracted.The abnormal areas identified by the numerical model corresponds well with the seismic events.In order to provide an objective evaluation basis for the subsequent use of this model to track earthquake conditions and to determine earthquake risk locations,this paper adopts the R-value scoring method to evaluate the efficiency of this proposed model.The results show that the prediction of the strain rate field in the three stages passes the R-value scoring.

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Last Update: 2025-01-01