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[1]MA Yong,BI Jinmeng,SONG Cheng,et al.Analysis of the Seismicity in North China Using Hybrid Probability Forecasting Model[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2021,44(04):572-582.

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Analysis of the Seismicity in North China Using Hybrid Probability Forecasting Model

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: 44 Number of periods: 2021 04 Page number: 572-582 Column: Public date: 2021-11-10

Title:: Analysis of the Seismicity in North China Using Hybrid Probability Forecasting Model

Author(s):: MA Yong; BI Jinmeng; SONG Cheng; SHANG Xianqi; (Tianjin Earthquake Agency,Tianjin 300201,China)

Keywords:: probability forecasting model; effectiveness evaluation; characteristics of earthquake activity; North China

CLC:: P315.7

DOI:: -

Abstract:: For the “Operational Earthquake Forecasting”(OEF),it is critical to build a predictive model that conforms to the regional seismicity and whose effectiveness can be evaluated.In this paper,we select the M≥5.0 earthquake data from 1970 to 2019 in North China with complex geological structure and intensive earthquake activity,use the relative intensity(RI)model,the moment ratio(MR)model and the simple smoothing(Triple-S)model,carry out a retrospective sliding prediction of the historical M>5.0 earthquakes,during which we set the “learning period of earthquake anomalies ” as 10 years,step length as 1 year,and the scale of the retrospective cycle as 1,3 and 5 years.Then we use the Molchan Diagram method and the T-test method to evaluate the efficacy of the prediction model.We determined the best calculation parameters of the three prediction models by optimization,and constructed a “hybrid” of probability forecasting models on different time scales which is suitable for analyzing the characteristics of earthquake activity in North China.Then we apply the latest 10-year earthquake data to our model for the analysis of the current characteristics of earthquake activity in North China.

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Last Update: 2021-11-10