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[1]ZHU Hongbin,LI Hong,YUE Xiaoyuan,et al.Retrospective Study of Moderate-earthquake Prediction in Beijing Based on Earthquake Consultation Information[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2021,44(04):583-593.

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Retrospective Study of Moderate-earthquake Prediction in Beijing Based on Earthquake Consultation Information

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: 44 Number of periods: 2021 04 Page number: 583-593 Column: Public date: 2021-11-10

Title:: Retrospective Study of Moderate-earthquake Prediction in Beijing Based on Earthquake Consultation Information

Author(s):: ZHU Hongbin; LI Hong; YUE Xiaoyuan; LI Juzhen; WANG Lihong; WU Minjie; ZHONG Shijun; (Beijing Earthquake Agency,Beijing 100080,China)

Keywords:: Beijing and its vincinity; moderate earthquakes; backtracking of earthquake prediction; indicators of earthquake anomalies; indicators of earthquake prediction

CLC:: P315.7

DOI:: -

Abstract:: By analyzing the original consultation data of earthquake prediction from Beijing Earthquake Agency since 1996,we take 8 historical moderate earthquake events in this period in Beijing and its vicinity to carry out retrospective studies on occurrence and evolution of anomalies before these earthquakes,and review the determination of relevant indicators for the anomalies and their effectiveness for earthquake prediction.Then by study of earthquake cases and evaluation of the indicators’ effectiveness,we obtain several indicators for earthquake anomalies in Beijing such as north-south trending stripe of small earquakes.These indicators can help establish a system of predictive indicators in Beijing.The procedure of determining anomalous indicators and forecasting indicators of moderate earthquakes is:①finding anomalies by daily earthquake-tracking analysis,②putting forward indicators of earthquake anomalies after a case study,and ③ choosing those which have been tested with high scores as forecasting indicators.The forecasting indicators of medium earthquakes need testing at least once by earthquake-prediction practice before they are determined.

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Last Update: 2021-11-10