[1]YU Chen,HAN Ying,ZHANG Yongxian,et al.Application of Multi-Method Earthquake Prediction in CSEP and Testing of Prediction Efficiency[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2025,(02):199-209.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0021 ]
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Application of Multi-Method Earthquake Prediction in CSEP and Testing of Prediction Efficiency

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: Number of periods: 2025 02 Page number: 199-209 Column: Public date: 2025-02-10
Title:
Application of Multi-Method Earthquake Prediction in CSEP and Testing of Prediction Efficiency
Author(s):
YU Chen1; HAN Ying1; ZHANG Yongxian2; ZHANG Xiaotao1; YU Huaizhong1
(1.China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)(2.Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China)
Keywords:
Multi-Method Earthquake Prediction(MMEP);  CSEP;  Load/Unload Response Ratio;  R-value test;  prediction test
CLC:
P315.72
DOI:
10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0021
Abstract:
In recent years,dependent on the national key research and development program,the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)initiated by the Southern California Earthquake Center has been transplanted to China.The CSEP-China center has been established,and prediction modules such as Pattern Informatics(PI),Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR),and State Vector(SV)have been developed.In order to better evaluate the practicability of CSEP-China center,the annual prediction results of the Multi-Method Earthquake Prediction(MMEP)based on the above three prediction methods are summarized.Furthermore,the R-value scoring module of CSEP-China center is used to evaluate the annual prediction results.The results show that:(1)The R-value score of MMEP annual prediction results is in the range of 0.3-0.4,and the annual prediction efficiency has little fluctuation;(2)The prediction results in the western region of Chinese mainland are better than those in the eastern region.Among them,the annual prediction of the Changning 6.0 earthquake in Sichuan,the Jiashi 6.4 earthquake and the Yutian 6.4 earthquake in Xinjiang,and the medium-short term prediction of the Luding 6.8 earthquake in Sichuan are correct.(3)For different regions,how to give the appropriate scale of time prediction results needs to be improved.
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