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[1]LI Zeping,YU Huaizhong,YANG Zhigao,et al.Test and Application of the Foreshock Identification Method Based on the Load/Unload Response Ratio[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2025,(02):220-228.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0023 ]

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Test and Application of the Foreshock Identification Method Based on the Load/Unload Response Ratio

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: Number of periods: 2025 02 Page number: 220-228 Column: Public date: 2025-02-10

Title:: Test and Application of the Foreshock Identification Method Based on the Load/Unload Response Ratio

Author(s):: LI Zeping¹; 2; YU Huaizhong³; YANG Zhigao³; ZHANG Jingxue³; (1.Institute of Seismology,China Earthquake Administration,Wuhan 430071,Hubei,China)(2.Hubei Earthquake Agency,Wuhan 430071,Hubei,China)(3.China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)

Keywords:: Load/Unload Response Ratio; foreshock; earth tide; analysis of the post-earthquake risk tend; earthquake prediction

CLC:: P315.72

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0023

Abstract:: We sorted out and analyzed the forecasting results produced by the foreshock identification system developed based on the improved Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)method to verify the effectiveness of this method in foreshock identification.The western region of Chinese mainland was selected as the study area.In this region,64.2% of all 190 non-foreshocks(M>4.0)occurred during the unloading process,while the remaining events triggered during the loading process.The results indicated that non-foreshocks were more likely to occur during the unloading process.All the 4 foreshocks of the Yangbi M_S6.4 earthquake in Yunnan on May 21,2021,2 foreshocks of the Laos M_S6.0 earthquake on December 24,2021,and 3 foreshocks of the Maerkang M_S6.0 earthquake in Sichuan on June 10,2022 were triggered during the loading process.Further,by using the “traffic light” model for foreshock identification and seismic risk analysis,we categorized the loading/unloading states and researched the risk of strong earthquakes in seismogenic areas for the Baicheng M_S5.6 earthquake sequence on April 10,2024,the Wushi M_S7.1 sequence on January 23,2024 in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,and two strong aftershocks(M_S6.3,M_S6.2)of the Hualien M_S7.3 earthquake sequence on April 3,2023 in Chinese Taiwan.The results showed that the occurrence of stronger earthquakes after loading earthquake was consistent with the actual earthquake situation.Analyzing with R-value and probability gain,we can see that R-value is greater than R₀-value with 95% confidence and the probability gain is greater than 1,this indicates that the foreshock identification method based on the Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)can pass the significance test,and the prediction effect is good.This method is suitable for real-time assessment of the seismic risk trend in the western region of the Chinese mainland.

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Last Update: 2025-03-10