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[1]YU Huaizhong,YU Chen,ZHANG Xiaotao,et al.Construction of Software Systems of the CSEP Testing Center in China[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2025,(02):177-187.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0019 ]

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Construction of Software Systems of the CSEP Testing Center in China

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: Number of periods: 2025 02 Page number: 177-187 Column: Public date: 2025-02-10

Title:: Construction of Software Systems of the CSEP Testing Center in China

Author(s):: YU Huaizhong; YU Chen; ZHANG Xiaotao; YUAN Zhengyi; ZHONG Jun; XIE Mengyu; LI Zeping; ZHANG Jingxue; (China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)

Keywords:: CSEP testing center; prediction modules; testing modules; integrated functionality; openness

CLC:: P315.7

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0019

Abstract:: In order to improve standardization of evaluation of earthquake prediction methods,we have attempted to transplant the Collaboration for the Study of Earthquake Prediction(CSEP)to China based on the support of the National Key Research and Development Project,and established a platform for testing earthquake prediction methods.We have developed the prediction modules of Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR),crustal vibration,state vector,and earthquake comprehensive probability,meanwhile,we have introduced the pattern information(PI),the relative intensity(RI),and the infectious aftershock sequence(ETAS)prediction models.In addition,four earthquake prediction performance evaluation methods,including the Molchan,R-score,N-score,and ROC techniques,were adopted to test above prediction methods.As an open system,we have also incorporated the methods that commonly used prediction practice in China,such as the earthquake occurrence rate,earthquake modulation ratio,and b-value into the testing center.The testing center can perform both retrospective predictive tests and prospective predictive analysis,providing an operating environment and technical support for existing prediction methods.The software system of our testing center helps to systemically test the existing earthquake prediction methods and achieve standardized application.In addition,through comprehensive probability prediction,the quantification of earthquake prediction is promoted and decision-making is optimized.Relevant research results might be gradually applied to the medium-to-short-term prediction work in China.

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Last Update: 2025-03-10