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[1]LIU Shaochang,BAI Xianfu,CHU Zhengwei.Landslide Susceptibility Assessment in Northeast Yunnan[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2025,(01):89-101.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0010 ]

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Landslide Susceptibility Assessment in Northeast Yunnan

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: Number of periods: 2025 01 Page number: 89-101 Column: Public date: 2024-12-20

Title:: Landslide Susceptibility Assessment in Northeast Yunnan

Author(s):: LIU Shaochang¹; BAI Xianfu¹; CHU Zhengwei²; (1.Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China；2.Yunnan Southern Geological Survey Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Dali 671000,Yunnan,China)

Keywords:: northeast Yunnan Province; landslide; susceptibility; coupling model

CLC:: P315.94

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0010

Abstract:: After studying the factors inducing landslides and the environment leading to landslides in the critical earthquake risk areas in northeast Yunnan Province,we selected 12 evaluation factors from 3 categories:“topography”,“geology”,and “others”.Then,through testing the independence of these factors,we constructed an evaluation index system of the landslide susceptibility.We randomly selected 70% of the landslide sites in the study area for the training samples of the landslide susceptibility evaluation.Using GIS spatial analysis function,we respectively used the Certainty Factor model,the Binary Logistic Regression model and the coupled model of these two models,to evaluate the landslide susceptibility in the study area.we used the rest 30% of the landslide sites for test samples,and adopted the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve to verify the accuracy of the evaluation results from the three models.We found that the evaluation factors like elevation,slope,distance from the road,geological lithology,NDVI,and average annual rainfall have relatively significant effects on the landslide susceptibility.AUC value of the coupled model is 0.781,higher than the one(0.754)of the Certainty Factor model and another one(0.748)of the Binary Logistic Regression model.The coupled model is more rational and accurate than the other two,and satisfies all the requirements of model test.The coupled model objectively revealed the difference of the influence of each evaluation factor,and well reflected the mutual weight of the influence factors of landslide susceptibility.In the study area,the predicted locations of the landslide by the coupled model is consistent with the locations determined through field survey.

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Last Update: 2025-01-01