[1]QIAN Xiaodong,PENG Guanling,HE Suge.Probabilistic Earthquake Prediction of Yunnan Region by Using Non-stationary Poisson Model[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2020,43(01):45-56.
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Probabilistic Earthquake Prediction of Yunnan Region by Using Non-stationary Poisson Model
Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume:
43
Number of periods:
2020 01
Page number:
45-56
Column:
Public date:
2020-01-30
- Title:
- Probabilistic Earthquake Prediction of Yunnan Region by Using Non-stationary Poisson Model
- Keywords:
- non-stationary Poisson model; earthquake occurrence rate; Yunnan region; synthetical; probability
- CLC:
- P315.72
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- For the medium-and long-term probabilistic prediction of strong earthquakes problem,we propose a probability calculation method based on the non-stationary Poisson process,through a comparative study on stationary and non-stationary models,we find that the time-dependent earthquake occurrence rate of the non-stationary Poisson model can better describe the occurrence law of strong earthquakes.Using the non-stationary Poisson model,we calculated the theoretical probability of earthquake occurrence,and the theoretical probability is affected by many factors such as prediction accuracy,quiet time,recent earthquake magnitude,etc.The synthetical probability of strong earthquakes was calculated by the weighted integration method.The result shows that,①the nonlinear change of the cumulative frequency of earthquakes with time can be described by power exponential function.②Compared to the stationary Poisson model with a constant earthquake rate,the non-stationary Poisson model with variable earthquake occurrence rate with time is more sensitive to the state of active-quiet rhythm.③The synthetical probability Computed results of strong earthquakes in 9 seismic belts in Yunnan area show that,take December 31,2019 as the current time,Xiaojiang seismic belt and Tonghai Shiping seismic belt have higher comprehensive probability,the value is greater than 0.6.And the next are Zhongdian Dali seismic belt,Chuxiong Nanhua seismic belt and Lancang Gengma seismic belt,the synthetical probability is in the range of 0.5～0.59.The synthetical probability of other seismic zones is less than 0.5.
- References:
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Last Update:
2020-01-30