[1]BAI Xianfu,NIE Gaozhong,DAI Yuqian,et al.Modeling and Testing Earthquake-induced Landslide Casualty Rate Based on a Grid in a Kilometer Scale:Taking the 2014 Yunnan Ludian MS6.5 Earthquake as a Case[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2021,44(01):87-95.
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Modeling and Testing Earthquake-induced Landslide Casualty Rate Based on a Grid in a Kilometer Scale:Taking the 2014 Yunnan Ludian MS6.5 Earthquake as a Case
Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume:
44
Number of periods:
2021 01
Page number:
87-95
Column:
Public date:
2021-01-15
- Title:
- Modeling and Testing Earthquake-induced Landslide Casualty Rate Based on a Grid in a Kilometer Scale:Taking the 2014 Yunnan Ludian MS6.5 Earthquake as a Case
- Keywords:
- earthquake-induced landslides; casualty rates; logistic model; grid in a kilometer scale; Ludian MS6.5 earthquake
- CLC:
- P315.942
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- To improve the accuracy of earthquake casualty assessment,we should improve the earthquake damage assessment system and scientifically assess the possible casualties caused by seismogeological disasters.For this purpose,we developed a logical regression model for earthquake landslide mortality based on 1 km×1 km grid cells using the death data in the landslides of the Yunnan Ludian MS6.5 earthquake in 2014.F-value test was used to examine the model's statistical portability.In the Ludian study area,the computed F-value was infinitely close to 1.This result proved that the model we developed is close to the real model in the Ludian area.According to the field investigation,the earthquake-induced landslides in the Ludian disaster area claimed 250 deaths,while we get 233 deaths by our new model,leaving the accuracy as 93.20%.Furthermore,the death places triggered by landslides are nearly consistent with the ones indicated by our model.This suggests that the computed earthquake-induced landslides mortality values are good indicators of real casualties.
- References:
- -
- Similar References:
Memo
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Last Update:
2021-01-15