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[1]QIAN Xiaodong,HE Suge.Research on Strong Earthquake Probability Prediction Based on the Probability Gain Model[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2024,47(02):223-232.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2024.0015]

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Research on Strong Earthquake Probability Prediction Based on the Probability Gain Model

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: 47 Number of periods: 2024 02 Page number: 223-232 Column: Public date: 2024-06-01

Title:: Research on Strong Earthquake Probability Prediction Based on the Probability Gain Model

Author(s):: QIAN Xiaodong¹; 2; HE Suge¹; 2; (1.Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)(2.Shanghai Sheshan National Geophysical Observatory, Shanghai 200062,China)

Keywords:: drift rate; the Bayesian estimation; mobile-gravity observation; adjustment results; Yunnan

CLC:: P315.72

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2024.0015

Abstract:: In order to improve the accuracy of short- and medium-term prediction of strong earthquakes in Yunnan and its adjacent area,through the comparative study of different earthquake precursor indexes before strong earthquake,we find that using only one single indicator is difficult to improve the accuracy of prediction.We select 6 indexes which all reflect the occurrence law of strong earthquakes from different aspects.We use the probability gain model to synthetically process these indicators by estimating the probability gain of each earthquake precursor to quantitatively determine the possibility of the earthquake.Finally,we obtain a synthetic probability P index to predict the probability of short- and medium-term occurrence of 6-magnitude earthquakes or above in Yunnan and its adjacent area in future.The results show that:①The comprehensive probability P can pass the R-value test for predicting 6-magnitude earthquakes or above in Yunnan and its adjacent area in the next six months.②Taking P abnormal threshold as 20% and 30%,different levels of strong earthquake warning can be carried out,a P-value less than 20% indicates “safety”; a P-value greater than 20% indicates that a “yellow warning” is necessary,indicating that there is a possibility of a 6-magnitude earthquake or higher may occur in Yunnan in future; a P-value greater than 30% indicates the need for a “red warning”,indicating that a 6-magnitude earthquake or above will occur in Yunnan and its adjacent area in the next six months.

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Last Update: 2024-03-20