[1]LIU Zhe,REN Luchuan.Estimation of the Risk of Earthquake-induced Tsunami by Coupling Uncertainty of Magnitude,Focal Depth and Slip Angle[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2024,47(02):233-244.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2024.0026]
Copy
Estimation of the Risk of Earthquake-induced Tsunami by Coupling Uncertainty of Magnitude,Focal Depth and Slip Angle
Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume:
47
Number of periods:
2024 02
Page number:
233-244
Column:
Public date:
2024-06-01
- Title:
- Estimation of the Risk of Earthquake-induced Tsunami by Coupling Uncertainty of Magnitude,Focal Depth and Slip Angle
- CLC:
- P315.728
- DOI:
- 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2024.0026
- Abstract:
- Firstly,we choose 6 sites—Zhoushan,Ningde,Xiamen,Hongkong,Haikou,and Gaoxiong in the southeastern coastal areas in China as the research samples.Then we suppose the Manila trench subduction zone and the Ryukyu trench subduction zone are the potential sources of the earthquake-induced tsunami.We estimate the uncertainty of the magnitude by the Generalized Extreme Value method and the Generalized Pareto Distribution.By probabilistic statistics,we get the predominant distribution of the focal depths of the potential earthquakes in these two subduction zones.By fitting the function of slip angle’s distribution and by coupling the uncertainty of magnitude,focal depth,and slip angle,we estimate that the potential earthquakes in the Manila trench subduction zone and the Ryukyu trench subduction zone would induce tsunamis whose wave height exceeds 0.4 m at the 6 sites in next 30,50 and 100 years.
- References:
-
刘也,任叶飞,温瑞智,等.2022.海啸危险性概率分析的不确定性研究[J].地震学报,44(4):688-699.
Liu Y,Ren Y F,Wen R Z,et al.2022.Uncertainties in probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,44(4):688-699.(in Chinese)
刘迎春.2007.中国沿海地区潜在地震海啸灾害评估[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院.
Liu Y C.2007.The potential seismogenic tsunami hazard along Chinese Coast[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy Sciences Graduate University of Chinese Academy Sciences.(in Chinese)
钱小仕,王福昌,曹桂荣,等.2012.广义极值分布在地震危险性分析中的应用[J].地震研究,35(1):73-78.
Qian X S,Wang F C,Cao G R,et al.2012.Application of the generalized extreme value distribution in seismic hazard analysis[J].Journal of Seismological Research,35(1):73-78.(in Chinese)
任鲁川,霍振香,洪明理.2014.耦合潜源参数不确定性效应的地震海啸危险性分析-原理与方法[J].海洋预报,31(6):7-13.
Ren L C,Huo Z X,Hong M L.2014.Principle and method of the seismic tsunami hazard analysis coupling uncertainty effect of potential source parameters[J].Marine Forecasts,31(6):7-13.(in Chinese)
任鲁川,薛艳.2006.我国沿海地区地震海啸危险性的初步估计.中国地震趋势预测研究[M].北京:地震出版社,640-647.
Ren L C,Xue Y.2006.Preliminary estimate of earthquake and tsunami Hazard in Chinese coastal areas[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,640-647.(in Chinese)
史道济.2006.实用极值统计方法[M].天津:天津科学技术出版社.
Shi D J.2006.Practical statistical method of extreme value[M].Tianjin:Tianjin Science and Technology Press.(in Chinese)
田建伟,刘哲,任鲁川.2017.基于广义帕累托分布的马尼拉海沟俯冲带地震危险性估计[J].地震,37(1):158-165.
Tian J W,Liu Z,Ren L C.2017.Seismic hazard estimation of the Manila trench subduction zone based on generalized Pareto distribution[J].Earthquake,37(1):158-165.(in Chinese)
王晓青,吕金霞,丁香.2006.我国地震海啸危险性初步探讨[J].华南地震,26(1):76-80.
Wang X Q,Lyu J X,Ding X.2006.A preliminary study on the risk of tsunami in China[J].South China Journal of Seismology,26(1)76-80.(in Chinese)
温瑞智,任叶飞.2007.我国地震海啸危险性分析方法研究[J].世界地震工程,23(1):6-11.
Wen R Z,Ren Y F.2007.Preliminary study on tsunami hazard analysis in China[J].World Earthquake Engineering,23(1):6-11.(in Chinese)
严尊国,陈俊华,郑文衡.1995.地震震级—频度G-R关系的偏离度[J].地震,(4):328-332.
Yan Z G,Chen J H,Zheng W H.1995.Deviation between magnitude-frequency statistics and G-R relationship[J].Earthquake,(4):328-332.(in Chinese)
张锟,任鲁川,田建伟,等.2016.基于广义极值理论的潜在地震海啸源震级上限及强震重现水平的估计——以琉球海沟俯冲带为例[J].中国地震,32(4):702-709.
Zhang K,Ren L C,Tian J W,et al.2016.Estimation of upper bound earthquake magnitude and return level of strong earthquake for potential seismic tsunami zone based on generalized extreme value theory:A case study of Ryukyu trench subduction zone[J].Earthquake Research in China,32(4):702-709.(in Chinese)
Annaka T,Satake K,Sakakiyama T,et al.2007.Logic-tree approach for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis and its applications to the Japanese Coasts[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,164(2-3):577-592.
Cornell C A.1968.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,58(5):1583-1606.
Geist E L,Parsons T.2006.Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards[J].Natural Hazards,37(3):277-314.
Geist E L.2005.Local tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest from Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes[M]//Survey,Geological U S Geological Survey Professional Paper 1661-B,17.
Horspool N,Prananty I,Griffin J,et al.2014.A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Science,2(5):3423-3464.
Joyner W B,Boore D M.1982.Prediction of earthquake response spectra[R].USA.
Li H,Yuan Y,Xu Z,et al.2017.The dependency of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment on magnitude limits of seismic sources in the South China Sea and adjoining basins[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,174(6):2351-2370.
Liu Y,Ren Y,Wen R,et al.2021.Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the southeast coast of China:consideration of both regional and local potential sources[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,178(12):5061-5084.
Petersen M D,Cramer C H,Frankel A D.2002.Simulations of seismic hazard for the pacific northwest of the united states from earthquakes associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,159(9):2147-2168.
Ren Y,Wen R,Zhou B,et al.2010.Deterministic analysis of the tsunami hazard in china[J].Science of Tsunami Hazards,29(1):32-42.
Ren Z,Gao Y,Ji X,et al.2022.Deterministic tsunami hazard assessment and zoning approach using far-field and near-field sources:Study of Cixi County of Zhejiang Province,China[J].Ocean Engineering,247:110487.
Rikitake T,Aida I.1988.Tsunami hazard probability in Japan[J].Bull Ssmol Soc Am,78(3):1268-1278.
Annaka T,Sutake K,Sakakiyama T,et al.2007.Logic-tree approach for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis and its applications to the Japanese Coasts[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,164(2-3):577-592.
Wang X,Liu P.2006.Preliminary study of possible tsunami hazards in Taiwan region[R].Cornell University.
Power W,Wang X M,Lane E,et al.2013.A probabilistic tsunami hazard study of the Auckland Region,Part I:Propagation modeling and tsunami hazard assessment at the shoreline[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,170(9-10):1621-1634.
Yuan Y,Li H,Wei Y,et al.2021.Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment(PTHA)for southeast coast of Chinese Mainland and Taiwan Island[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth,126(2):1-29.
- Similar References:
Memo
-
Last Update:
2024-03-20