[1]LIU Zhe,REN Luchuan.Estimation of the Risk of Earthquake-induced Tsunami by Coupling Uncertainty of Magnitude,Focal Depth and Slip Angle[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2024,47(02):233-244.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2024.0026
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Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume:
47
Number of periods:
2024 02
Page number:
233-244
Column:
Public date:
2023-12-01
- Title:
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Estimation of the Risk of Earthquake-induced Tsunami by Coupling Uncertainty of Magnitude,Focal Depth and Slip Angle
- Author(s):
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LIU Zhe1; 2; REN Luchuan3
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(1.Hebei Hongshan National Observatory on Thick Sediments and Seismic Hazards,Xingtai 054000,Hebei,China)(2.Tangshan Earthquake Monitor Center,Tangshan 063000,Hebei,China)(3.Institute of Disaster Prevention,Sanhe 065200,Hebei,China)
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- Keywords:
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GRACE; the dislocation model; gravity gradient; the Bengkulu; Indonesia MW8.4 earthquake
- CLC:
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P315.728
- DOI:
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10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2024.0026
- Abstract:
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Firstly,we choose 6 sites—Zhoushan,Ningde,Xiamen,Hongkong,Haikou,and Gaoxiong in the southeastern coastal areas in China as the research samples.Then we suppose the Manila trench subduction zone and the Ryukyu trench subduction zone are the potential sources of the earthquake-induced tsunami.We estimate the uncertainty of the magnitude by the Generalized Extreme Value method and the Generalized Pareto Distribution.By probabilistic statistics,we get the predominant distribution of the focal depths of the potential earthquakes in these two subduction zones.By fitting the function of slip angle's distribution and by coupling the uncertainty of magnitude,focal depth,and slip angle,we estimate that the potential earthquakes in the Manila trench subduction zone and the Ryukyu trench subduction zone would induce tsunamis whose wave height exceeds 0.4 m at the 6 sites in next 30,50 and 100 years.