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[1]JIANG Xianghua,LIU Jie,MENG Lingyuan,et al.Assessing Earthquake Prediction Performance Based on Seismicity Rate Index in Sichuan-Yunnan Region[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2025,(02):253-263.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0027 ]

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Assessing Earthquake Prediction Performance Based on Seismicity Rate Index in Sichuan-Yunnan Region

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: Number of periods: 2025 02 Page number: 253-263 Column: Public date: 2025-02-10

Title:: Assessing Earthquake Prediction Performance Based on Seismicity Rate Index in Sichuan-Yunnan Region

Author(s):: JIANG Xianghua¹; LIU Jie¹; MENG Lingyuan¹; HAN Yanyan¹; CHEN Jiawei²; (1.China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)(2.National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of the People's Republic of China,Beijing 100085,China)

Keywords:: seismicity rate index; seismic activation; seismic quiescence; earthquake prediction; prediction performance; Sichuan-Yunnan region

CLC:: P315.72

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0027

Abstract:: This paper presents a new method referred to as the seismicity rate index(SRI)for quantitatively analyzing seismic quiescence and activity,which is based on Poisson distribution.We applied this method to a retrospective case study of 11 strong earthquakes which occurred in Sichuan-Yunnan region from January 1,2014 to December 31,2023.We found that the precursor mainly manifested as a significant increase in seismicity rate near the epicenter less than half a year before the main shock.The SRI's prediction performance was assessed based on different spatiotemporal prediction parameters.Results show that SRI has good performance on short-term prediction of strong earthquakes in the study region.On the condition that the prediction radius is 90 km and the prediction duration is 80 days,SRI would have the best prediction performance,with the R score of about 0.60 and a significance level of about 0.00006.

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Last Update: 2025-03-10