PDF Download HTML

[1]XUE Yan,HONG Min,YU Huaizhong,et al.Research on Comprehensive Short-term and Imminent Prediction of Strong Earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan Region[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2025,(02):272-280.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0029 ]

Copy

Research on Comprehensive Short-term and Imminent Prediction of Strong Earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan Region

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: Number of periods: 2025 02 Page number: 272-280 Column: Public date: 2025-02-10

Title:: Research on Comprehensive Short-term and Imminent Prediction of Strong Earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan Region

Author(s):: XUE Yan¹; HONG Min²; YU Huaizhong¹; JIANG Xianghua¹; (1.China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)(2.Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)

Keywords:: comprehensive short-term and imminent earthquake prediction; weight integration method; strong earthquakes; Sichuan-Yunnan region

CLC:: P315.75

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0029

Abstract:: In this paper,we firstly make a retrospective summary of the seismic and geophysical anomalies observed before 11(or 10 groups of)strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region since 2013.Based on the test of the anomalies' prediction effectiveness,and according to the weight assignment rules,we assign weights to the anomalies.Then,we calculate the weight integration P_Z-value of the strong earthquakes using the weight integration method,and the threshold value P_Z6 of 6-magnitude earthquakes and P_Z7 of 7-magnitude earthquakes in three key areas(the eastern boundary between Sichuan Province and Yunnan Province,northwest Yunnan,southwest Yunnan)in Sichuan-Yunnan region are obtained.These values can be used as a reference for short-term and imminent earthquake prediction in these three key areas.In addition,according to the macro- and micro-anomaly reports,the monthly P_Z-value from January 2020 to December 2023 in the three key areas are calculated.The results show that M_S≥6.0 earthquakes mainly occurred at the time when P_Z-value reached the peak points,or P_Z-value was in the process of rapid increase.A few earthquakes occurred when P_Z-value was in the process of decrease from the high value.P_Z-value is capable of quantitatively describing the group-earthquake anomalies; it is helpful for the quantification of the short-term and imminent earthquake prediction.

References:: 陈立德.1993.地震综合预报的权重集成法[J].地震研究,16(3):267-271.
Chen L D.1993.Synthetical earthquake prediction using weight integration method[J].Journal of Seismological Research,16(3):267-271.(in Chinese)
邓世广,周龙泉,马亚伟,等.2019.基于贝叶斯定理的地震危险性概率预测研究[J].中国地震,35(1):1-13.
Deng S G,Zhou L Q,Ma Y W,et al.2019.Research on probability prediction of earthquake risk based on Bayesian theorem[J].Earthquake Research in China,35(1):1-13.(in Chinese)
杜芳,龙峰,赵敏,等.2019.2013年4月20日四川省芦山7.0级地震.中国震例(2013)[M].北京:地震出版社,168-288.
Du F,Long F,Zhao M,et al.2019.Lushan M_S7.0 earthquake on 20 April,2013 in Sichuan Province,China.Earthquake cases in China mainland(2013)[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,168-288.(in Chinese)
付虹,刘自凤,胡小静,等.2021.2021年云南漾濞M_S6.4地震异常跟踪分析[J].地震研究,44(3):301-308.
Fu H,Liu Z F,Hu X J,et al.2021.Tracking analysis of seismic anomalies of the 2021 Yangbi,Yunnan M_S6.4 earthquake[J].Journal of Seismological Research,44(3):301-308.(in Chinese)
何畅,路茜,龙峰,等.2022.基于贝叶斯概率的强震综合概率预测指标建立及其在四川地区的应用[J].四川地震,(3):6-13.
He C,Lu Q,Long F,et al.2022.The establishment of a comprehensive probability prediction index for strong earthquakes based on the Bayesian probability and its application in Sichuan[J].Earthquake Research in Sichuan,(3):6-13.(in Chinese)
黄小龙,吴中海,赵小艳,等.2015.2014年5月云南盈江M_S5.6、M_S6.1地震发震构造分析[J].地球学报,36(6):761-770.
Huang X L,Wu Z H,Zhao X Y,et al.2015.Seismogenic structure of 2014 M_S5.6 and M_S6.1 earthquakes in Yingjiang,Yunnan province[J].Acta Geoscienitica Sinica,36(6):761-770.(in Chinese)
蒋海昆,苗青壮,吴琼,等.2009.基于震例的前兆统计特征分析[J].地震学报,31(3):245-259.
Jiang H K,Miao Q Z,Wu Q,et al.2009.Analysis on statistical features of precursor based on earthquake cases in China mainland[J].Acta Seismological Sinica,31(3):245-259.(in Chinese)
吕坚,王晓山,苏金蓉,等.2013.芦山7.0级地震序列的震源位置与震源机制解特征[J].地球物理学报,56(5):1753-1763.
Lyu J,Wang X S,Su J R,et al.2013.Hypocentral location and source mechanism of the M_S7.0 Lushan earthquake sequence[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,56(5):1753-1763.(in Chinese)
钱晓东,贺素歌.2024.基于概率增益模型的强震概率预测研究[J].地震研究,47(2):223-232.
Qian X D,He S G.2024.Research on strong earthquake probability prediction based on the probability gain model[J].Jounal of Seismological Research,47(2):223-232.(in Chinese)
钱晓东,李智蓉,胡小静.2019.2014年5月24日、30日云南省盈江5.6、6.1级地震[M]//蒋海昆,付虹,杨马陵.中国震例(2014—2015).北京:地震出版社,137-189.
Qian X D,Li Z R,Hu X J.2019.2014 Yingjiang earthquakes with M_S5.6 on 24 May and with M_S6.1 on 30 May,Yunnan province[M]//Jiang H K,Fu H,Yang M L.China.Earthquake cases in China mainland(2014—2015).Beijing:Seismological Press,137-189.(in Chinese)
邵志刚,晏锐,刘瑞春,等.2024.全国震情跟踪与会商研判技术方案[M].北京:地震出版社,153-212.
Shao Z G,Yan R,Liu R C,et al.2024.Earthquake situation tracking and consultation judgement in China[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,153-212.(in Chinese)
宋俊高,陆远忠,施玉芳,等.1989.震群用于地震预报的实用程式研究[M]//国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集—地震学专辑.北京:学术书刊出版社:204-228.
Song J G,Lu Y Z,Shi Y F,et al.1989.The research of a comprehensive program for earthquake prediction with earthquake swarm[M]//Department of Science,Technology and Monitoring,State Seismological Bureau.The practical research paper on earthquake prediction methods(seismicity section).Beijing:Academic Press,204-228.(in Chinese)
王月,胡少乾,何骁慧,等.2021.2021年5月21日云南漾濞6.4级地震序列重定位及震源机制解[J].地球物理学报,64(12):4510-4525.
Wang Y,Hu S Q,He X H,et al.2021.Relocation and focal mechanism solutions of the 21 May 2021 M_S6.4 Yunnan Yangbi earthquake sequence[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,64(12):4510-4525.(in Chinese)
许绍燮.1989.地震预报能力评分[M]//国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集—地震学专辑.北京:学术书刊出版社,586-589.
Xu S X.1989.The evaluation of earthquake prediction ability[M]//Department of Science,Technology and Monitoring,State Seismological Bureau.The practical research paper on earthquake prediction methods—seismicity section).Beijing:Academic Press,586-589.(in Chinese)
解滔,任越霞,廖晓峰,等.2023.2022年四川泸定M_S6.8地震前地下介质视电阻率变化特征及其机理分析[J].地球物理学报,66(4):1428-1437.
Xie T,Ren Y X,Liao X F,et al.2023.Changes in apparent resistivity and its possible mechanisms before the Luding M_S6.8 earthquake on September 5,2022,Sichuan Province,China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,66(4):1428-1437.(in Chinese)
薛艳,张小涛,晏锐,等.2022.2022年四川泸定M_S6.8地震前地震活动与地球物理观测异常回顾与讨论[J].中国地震,38(4):601-612.
Xue Y,Zhang X T,Yan R,et al.Review and discussion on seismic activity and geophysical observation anomalies befort the 2022 Luding M_S6.8 earthquake in Sichuan,China[J].Earthquake Research in China,38(4):601-612.(in Chinese)
易桂喜,龙峰,梁明剑,等.2023.2022年9月5日四川泸定M_S6.8地震序列发震构造[J].地球物理学报,66(4):1363-1384.
Yi G X,Long F,Liang M J,et al.2023.Seismogenic structure of the 5 September 2022 Sichuan Luding M_S6.8 earthquake sequence[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,66(4):1363-1384.(in Chinese)
Yang X,Lu Q,Zhang T B,et al.2023.Analytical study of the changes in brightness temperature based on the tectonic field associated with three earthquakes in the eastern Tibetan Plateau[J].IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing,61,doi:10.1109/TGRS.2023.3250554.

Similar References:

Memo

Last Update: 2025-03-10