[1]QIAN Xiao-dong.The Application of Time-to-failure Method in Strong Earthquakes Prediction of Xiaojiang Fault Zone in Yunnan[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2010,33(02):138-146.
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The Application of Time-to-failure Method in Strong Earthquakes Prediction of Xiaojiang Fault Zone in Yunnan
Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume:
33
Number of periods:
2010 02
Page number:
138-146
Column:
Public date:
2010-02-01
- Title:
- The Application of Time-to-failure Method in Strong Earthquakes Prediction of Xiaojiang Fault Zone in Yunnan
- Keywords:
- time-to-failure method; accelerating energy release; location search; Xiaojiang Fault Zone
- CLC:
- P315.7
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- On the basis of earthquake catalog data recorded by Yunnan region network,using time-to-failure method,we simulated the process of Accelerating energy release of Precursory earthquake sequence.Systematic research of accelerating energy release of model parameter estimation method and strong earthquake location search technology.Derived the basic formula of prediction model.We simulated 19 times the main seismic events of Xiaojiang Fault Zone.The results show that the accelerating energy release before strong earthquakes is a universal phenomenon.Appears to accelerate the release of energy of precursor earthquake sequence of the difference between the main shock with 2.5 magnitude units as a proportion of 80%.Prediction time and magnitude which precursor sequence simulated with the actual value is very close to.The main earthquake magnitude prediction accuracy level of about ±0.5,time error of ±0.5 year.Search radius and the search time and the main earthquake magnitude is a linear positive correlation.Using the main shock location search technique to predict medium-term strong earthquake risk areas in Xiaojiang Fault Zone.
- References:
- -
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Last Update:
2010-02-23