[1]YUAN Fuquan,SUN Shirui,WANG Xiaoling.Retrospective Forecast Test Study on Seismic Risk Prediction of Medium-strong Earthquakes in Qinghai Region by PI Algorithm[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2016,39(增刊):76-82.
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Retrospective Forecast Test Study on Seismic Risk Prediction of Medium-strong Earthquakes in Qinghai Region by PI Algorithm
Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume:
39
Number of periods:
2016 Supplementary
Page number:
76-82
Column:
Public date:
2016-11-20
- Title:
- Retrospective Forecast Test Study on Seismic Risk Prediction of Medium-strong Earthquakes in Qinghai Region by PI Algorithm
- CLC:
- P315.75
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- The Pattern Informatics(PI)algorithm was applied to analyze M≥5.0 earthquakes in the Qinghai region. Using the catalogues of M≥5.0 earthquakes in Qinghai region provided by NEIC and Qinghai seismic network from 1970 to 2015,we made statistic by using “variation leaning” period in 10 years scale and the “prediction” period in 3 years scale respectively. The retrospective forecast test results show that there exit the “hotspot” around the epicenter of Menyuan MS6.4 earthquake in 2016 in PI diagram. In the next three years(2016～2018),the “hot spot” values lg(△P/△Pmax)are higher in the Menyuan-Qilian,Delingha,Xinghai,Yushu and Tanggula areas. It is shown that the PI method could be applied in the middle and long term prediction of the moderately strong earthquake in Qinghai area.
- References:
- -
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Last Update:
2016-10-20