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[1]SONG Cheng,ZHANG Yongxian,ZHOU Shaohui,et al.Retrospective Study on the Forecast of the 2021 Maduo MS7.4 Earthquake by PI Method[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2023,46(02):226-236.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0027]

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Retrospective Study on the Forecast of the 2021 Maduo M_S7.4 Earthquake by PI Method

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: 46 Number of periods: 2023 02 Page number: 226-236 Column: Public date: 2023-06-01

Title:: Retrospective Study on the Forecast of the 2021 Maduo M_S7.4 Earthquake by PI Method

Author(s):: SONG Cheng¹; ZHANG Yongxian²; ZHOU Shaohui³; BI Jinmeng¹; XU Xiaoyuan¹; (1.Tianjin Earthquake Agency,Tianjin 300201,China)(2.Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China)(3.Shandong Earthquake Agency,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China)

Keywords:: the Maduo M_S7.4 earthquake; the Pattern Informatics(PI)method; hotspot; retrospective forecast

CLC:: P315.7

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0027

Abstract:: In this paper,the Pattern Informatics(PI)method was applied to the retrospective study on the forecast of the 2021 Maduo M_S7.4 earthquake.The local area(30.0°N-40.0°N,94.0°E-106.0°E)of Qinghai-Tibet tectonic block was chosen as the study region.With parameters of the 8-year-long forecasting window and the 0.8°× 0.8°-sized grid,successive forecasting hotspot diagrams were obtained in the period from 2009 to 2028.The results showed that:①In five successive forecasting windows covering the period from 2009 to 2020,continuous dense hotspots appeared in the grid in which the Maduo epicenter located and in its neighboring Moore grids.These hotspots strongly indicated the location of the Maduo earthquake.②In the period from 2014 to 2028,PI hotspots appeared in the grid in which the Maduo epicenter located or in its neighboring Moore grids in most forecasting windows.In the three continuous forecasting windows after 2018(2019-2026,2020-2027 and 2021-2028),dark hotspots appeared near the epicenter of the Maduo M_S7.4 earthquake and showed a gradual tendency of contraction,which indicated the impending occurrence of the Maduo M_S7.4 earthquake.③According to the continuous hotspot diagrams since 2009,hotspots appeared in the Bayankala block,the Qaidam block,the Qilian block and the Qiangtang block.Relatively,hotspots appearing at the junction of the Bayankala block and the Qaidam block near Maduo county had higher frequency,darker color,larger coverage.The results indicates that the middle part of the northern margin of the Bayankala block in the Qinghai-Tibet tectonic block has stronger seismicity and higher potential earthquake risk.

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Last Update: 2023-03-10