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[1]ZHAO Yu,WEI Maomao,SUN Yanping,et al.Estimation of Earthquake Deaths Based on the Bayesian Estimation by the Bootstrap Sampling[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2025,(01):132-141.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0014 ]

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Estimation of Earthquake Deaths Based on the Bayesian Estimation by the Bootstrap Sampling

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: Number of periods: 2025 01 Page number: 132-141 Column: Public date: 2024-12-20

Title:: Estimation of Earthquake Deaths Based on the Bayesian Estimation by the Bootstrap Sampling

Author(s):: ZHAO Yu¹; WEI Maomao¹; SUN Yanping²; SHI Yitong²; CHEN Wenkai²; (1.College of Statistics and Data Science,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China；2.Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,China Earthquake Administration,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China)

Keywords:: earthquake; earthquake-caused death; the Bootstrap sampling; the Bayesian estimation; death rate

CLC:: P315.94

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0014

Abstract:: The rapid post-earthquake assessment of the earthquake-caused casualty is crucial for decision-making and deployment of emergency response in earthquake scenarios.In this study,historical seismic data in Chinese mainland from 1950 to 2022 were selected for assessing the impact factors including the seismic intensity in the meizoseismal area,the original time,and the population density.Three levels of scenarios were established,and the Bootstrap sampling method was applied to expanding the historical seismic data for each scenario.Tthe Bayesian estimation was then employed in obtaining the distribution functions of the earthquake-caused casualties for different scenarios.Furthermore,truncation analysis was conducted based on real situations to determine the uncertainty range and the probability of mortality rate intervals.Finally,historical earthquake disasters were randomly selected to validate the accuracy of the model.The results showed that:①The mean and 95% interval estimates of the death rate of each scene basically accord with that the death rate of night in higher than that of day under the condition of the same intensity and the same population density in the earthquake area. ②The range of expected casualties estimated by the model effectively covered the actual statistical deaths.

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Last Update: 2025-01-01