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[1]LI Mingxiao,YU Huaizhong,XUE Yan,et al.Study on the Medium- and Short-term,Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Earthquake Swarm Activities in South China[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2025,(02):289-299.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0031 ]

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Study on the Medium- and Short-term,Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Earthquake Swarm Activities in South China

Journal of Seismological Research[ISSN 1000-0666/CN 53-1062/P] Volume: Number of periods: 2025 02 Page number: 289-299 Column: Public date: 2025-02-10

Title:: Study on the Medium- and Short-term,Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Earthquake Swarm Activities in South China

Author(s):: LI Mingxiao; YU Huaizhong; XUE Yan; YAN Wei; JIANG Xianghua; (China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)

Keywords:: earthquake swarms in South China; medium- and short-term; spatial and temporal characteristics; efficiency test

CLC:: P315.75

DOI:: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0031

Abstract:: This article studies the relationship between the frequency of earthquake swarms(M_L≥2.0)in different time windows and moderate-and strong-earthquakes in Southern China.After the predictive performance evaluation,we analyze the medium-and short-term,spatial,temporal characteristics of earthquake-swarm activity in South China.In addition,we discuss the seismogenic process based on the seismic activity and geophysical observation anomalies.The results show that:①The frequency of the earthquake swarms(M_L≥2.0)in Southern China in 2 months is equal to or greater than 4.This frequency is the optimal indicator predicting earthquakes(M_S≥5.0)in short-and medium-term.The most probable prediction period is 200 days(R=0.48,R₀=0.40); ②The frequency of the swarms(M_L≥2.0)in Southern China in 3 months is equal to or greater than 4.This frequency is the optimal indicator predicting earthquakes(M_S≥5.0)in short- and medium-term.The most probable prediction period is 20 days(R=0.43,R₀=0.34); ③The spatial distribution of active earthquake clusters has a certain indication of the epicenter of future earthquakes(M_S≥5.0)in South China,but the range of seismic clusters is relatively large,so when predicting earthquakes,one should refer to other prediction methods to determine the potential earthquake location; ④The number of short-term geophysical anomalies increased proximately 8 months before the Beiliu M_S5.2 earthquake and the Jingxi M_S5.2 earthquake in Guangxi.The seismic swarm was active about 6 months before the two earthquakes.And small earthquakes were active approximately 3 months before the two earthquakes.Earthquake activity synchronized with the geophysical anomalies,reflecting the enhancement of the regional stress field before the two earthquakes.

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Last Update: 2025-03-10